FWIW # 5 The Silver Linings in COVID-19 June 2020

The Silver Linings in COVID-19

The world is going through a challenging time that will rank high with other pandemics in history. Our children and grandchildren have learned a lesson many of us did not experience in our childhood. The impact will manifest itself in years to come, after they’ve internalized the fear and helplessness that suddenly cropped up. Our ancestors who lived through the Great Depression and two world wars would have dealt with this pandemic better than we who were born during or shortly after World War II and the other generations that came after us. As tragic as it has been and will be for months and years to come, there are silver linings to this global disaster. Let’s look at some.

1. Children with a mature outlook on the future. Start with the children. While some won’t admit it, many students have developed a new respect and desire for the structure of school and the guidance of their teachers. Middle school and high school students can clearly see the risk to their future adult lives that comes with being deprived of the education necessary to succeed. It’s possible this desire to learn will propel studying to the level we always hoped children would embrace.

All of us adults going through this trying time really don’t fully grasp all of the long-term ramifications, and we have frames of reference to measure the impact. Children have no frame of reference. In a matter of days, children watched their parents go from strong protectors to stressed and fearful people worried about their families’ basic survival. As they mature, children will build their frame around the subconscious memories they are storing now. As children of the Great Depression did, it’s likely they will be more careful about their lifestyle in maturity.

2. Better readiness for the next pandemic. A multitude of Monday-morning quarterbacks are speaking from their basements and bedrooms, criticizing what the federal, state, and local authorities did as they faced the unknown tidal wave of disease washing over the country. The object of the official response was to bend the curve of infection. The initial estimate by the experts was over 1.2 million Americans would die, but the number of deaths is now just over 100,000, less than one-tenth of the initial forecast. We have been fortunate to have real decision makers in all political levels in this country.

Looking at the response of the federal authorities, it appears they have recognized how vulnerable the country is to biological and germ warfare. I’m confident that, somewhere in the White House and the Pentagon, there are teams dusting off old playbooks and strategies

for combating and containing future deliberate or accidental epidemics fostered in our country by bad actors of all types. It doesn’t take a government to create a biological disaster. It can be handled by a handful of suicide zealots or well-funded terrorist organizations. Whether it’s begun accidentally or deliberately, the next pandemic or epidemic will be handled differently and faster. The country will be ready.

3. A realistic view of globalization’s merits. Globalization was developed by the neoliberal political and business elites after WW II. Interestingly, the late 1800s through 1930 saw a massive wave of globalization that was turned aside by the Great Depression. The latest globalization push began humbly with the United Nations in the late 1940s and blossomed under the Reagan administration in the 1980s. It has accelerated through every administration since then.

Globalization as practiced since 1980 has at its core the substitution of high labor costs in developed countries for close to slave-labor costs in developing countries, fostered by easy communication and simple logistics. To escape higher labor costs, businesses moved parts of their supply chain outside the United States. When the pandemic hit, we realized we couldn’t make simple items like face masks, plastic parts that go in critical equipment, and other crucial never-thought-about parts that keep the country’s machinery running. Further, the pandemic’s severity has been heightened due to the countless jet planes and mega-sized container ships circling the globe, which we rely on for everything. We found out that 80–90% of our pharmaceuticals and their ingredients are made in India and China. We watched as other countries, hosting manufacturers of these parts and ingredients, began to deny United States corporations permission to export their products.

Globalization won’t die, but the current administration has invoked the Defense Production Act (DPA), which allows the government to direct U.S. companies to make certain essential products domestically. Just as importantly, a strong individual has been put in charge of this critical strategy. What the DPA doesn’t accomplish will be brought to the forefront during the presidential campaign. Voters will be asking both parties for their plans to protect the country and economy going forward. The pandemic has awakened the American people to the shortcomings of globalization.

4. A reinvigorated manufacturing sector. Since the 1980s, when globalization began shipping manufacturing jobs out of this country, the workforce has experienced severe pressure on job security and wage growth. The former manufacturing workers and newcomers to the workforce have had to seek service-sector jobs at wages less lucrative and secure than those in manufacturing. Many American companies blamed high labor costs for the loss of jobs. Yet manufacturers from other countries, such as German and Japanese auto companies, have found a good labor force in the United States that allows them to compete here effectively and export their products to other markets.

With the lessons learned fromthe pandemic, there is a high probability that the flow of manufacturing out of this country will reverse as the federal government incentivizes production of

goods in the United States. We will likely slow the growth of service jobs and boost growth in manufacturing jobs. Wages in both the service and manufacturing sectors will rise as the economy reopens. Both political parties in Washington appear willing to move forward with an infrastructure improvement plan. This rebuilding of infrastructure will be a blessing from the pandemic that strengthens the financial health of the United States.

As we think about the potential silver linings of this global disaster, we have to remember where we were before the disease struck. The country was in a good place socially and economically, with GDP and employment strong. Those who tell us life has changed forever may be allowing their personal fears and desires to support their political agenda: socialism. It’s helpful to know the following (all numbers are from the CDC and available on the internet.):

1. The 1918 Spanish flu pandemic infected one-third of the world’s population, killing 50 million globally and 675,000 in the U.S. There were three peaks, the same as we will probably experience. This global disaster was followed by the Roaring ʼ20s.

2. In 1957, an H2N2 virus killed 1.1 million globally and 116,000 in the U.S. There were three peaks. The country recovered.

3. In 1968, an H3N2 virus circulated and killed 1 million globally and 100,000 in the U.S. There were three peaks. The country recovered.

4. In 2009, an H1N1 virus killed between 150,000 and 500,000 globally and between 8,800 and 18,000 in the U.S. Think about what the economy did from then until March of 2020.

5. Every single year since 2010, an average of 27 million Americans contract the seasonal flu and an average of 36,000 die. These tragedies happen even with a vaccine available.

The country will recover and go on to new heights. The question is, will it happen soon, or will the fears and agendas of some political authorities make it happen later? There will be a second and a third wave; that’s unavoidable, whether the economy is open or closed. Americans are not accustomed to hiding in fear. With or without a vaccine, Americans are now aware of the risks. The careful will likely avoid infection, and the careless won’t. That’s the nature of a society where citizens have both the rights and the responsibilities that come with liberty and freedom.

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Graduation ceremonies have just taken place or will take place in the coming weeks. Don’t forget about the 107 SECRETS TO SUCCESS FOR THE GRADUATE. More than ever, those just starting out in a scary and uncertain world can use the plain and insightful truths on what it takes to succeed in any endeavor.

Later this week, our eighth short story will be posted to uniquereads.com. Entitled Be Careful What You Pray For, the story should be enjoyable and thought provoking.